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Last year, the Goldman Sachs investment firm in New York predicted oil would reach $105/barrel by February of 2008. Now, Goldman Sachs is predicting that oil will hit $200/barrel before 2008 ends. These costs are going to play havoc with school budgets because of huge busing costs in the budgets.
Most of us never question the costs of the large yellow school buses hauling kids here and there. Often they are almost empty. As oil goes up in price, school districts are going to face budget crackups because of busing. To continue widespread busing will require huge tax increases - just as oil costs are slamming taxpayers “to the mat” too.
As the costs of driving to work, home heating and food, which requires transport, go “through the roof,” taxpayers are not going to be in a good mood to pay higher property or income taxes for school busing. We have not mentioned the skyrocketing costs of healthcare as another “sweetener” of the mood of taxpayers. Busing as usual is over.
Many school districts seem to live in a business-as-usual “dreamland.” We are having an “oil shock” to the economy right now. The rising price of gas at the pump is pulling the economy into a recession, or worse. Yet, many school districts continue to hype “building sprees” that will create crushing school taxes when busing costs soon explode.
The time is soon coming when busing costs could compete with salaries and benefits for the teachers as the largest item in school budgets. Meanwhile, there is hardly a ripple in the media or government about this coming budget crackup in school districts. The folks in charge of schooling seem to be driving into the future looking into “rearview mirrors.”
Our consolidated schools reflect the now outdated “factory” model for doing business. The Industrial Revolution promoted centralization as the cost-effective model for “production”. School districts aped this model because the low costs of oil allowed them to transport “raw materials” to central, consolidated locations for “processing” until now.
The Information Age model is decentralized networking that uses technology to share and manage resources. Students no longer need to travel to a central location to use a library, an old rationale for consolidated schools. Today, the Internet brings the library to students, “just in time,” ready when and where they are. The Internet trumps oil costs!
The “pain” of energy costs to taxpayers could become “gain” if we take time to rethink and restructure schooling. Perhaps decentralized “country schools” will make a comeback. They are close to the “customer” and do not require costly busing. School budgets face crackups because of oil costs. “When tackled, fall forward.”
Paul Rux, Mount Horeb, is the owner of Paul Rux Associates.
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